The number of newbuild container vessels on order his risen for the first time in more than two years - but analysts are warning that supply and demand remain precariously balanced.
According to analyst AXS Alphaliner, the containership orderbook increased in October after 27 months of decline, from 3.73 million teu at the start of the month to 3.79 million teu at the start of this month.
Alphaliner said this was caused by a slowdown in the pace of delivery of new vessels and a "slew"of new orders placed in October.
Last month, 92,000teu of newbuild capacity was delivered- the lowest monthly figure since February - while the capacity of vessels ordered during October reached 131,000teu.
Alphaliner said: "Even lower delivery figures are expected throughout the fourth quarter, coinciding with the slower winter period.
"Further containership orders are expected before the end of the year. There is significant latent demand for new ships, as owners rush to place orders after having shied away from the yards for almost two years."
It added: "Since the orderbook peaked at 6.89 million teu in August 2008, it has been in continuous decline due to a combination of poor market sentiment and a lack of access to funding.
Alphaliner said it did not expect the size of the orderbook to return to 2007 levels - when it stood at 64% of the actual fleet - but expected it to be in the range of 25-30%. Currently, the orderbook stands at 26.6% of the fleet.
Overall, the containership fleet is expected to grow by 9.6% this year, and Alphaliner said it expected it to grow at a similar rate in 2011 and 2012.
But it warned that container trade volume growth was expected to slow next year from the 12.5% experienced this year, which threatened the supply/demand balance.
It said: "Overall demand/supply balance remains delicate and any slowdown in demand will cause a return of excess supply.
"2011 demand growth is unlikely to match the 12.5% growth rate seen in 2010, with current fourth-quarter growth levels considerably lower than those of the first three quarters.
"The Q4 growth rate will provide a better indicator of demand prospects for 2011."
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