Hong Kong's export growth probably accelerated in October for the first time in three months as the city's port shipped more Chinese-made toys and electronics bound for the U.S. and Europe.
Overseas sales rose 6.8 percent from a year earlier after gaining 4.7 percent in September, according to the median estimate of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The government will release trade figures at 4:15 p.m. local time today.
A U.S. housing slowdown has failed to trigger a spending slump in the world's largest economy, allaying concerns that Asian exports may cool. Rising sales helped drive 6.8 percent economic growth last quarter, prompting the government and banks including Morgan Stanley to raise forecasts for full-year expansion.
``I am not worried that the U.S. economic slowdown will damp Hong Kong's exports,'' said Kent Yau, an economist at Core Pacific-Yamaichi International Ltd. ``Consumer demand for cheap Chinese-made goods such as electronics is still strong.''
Hong Kong's exports may also strengthen as Chinese import growth recovers, said Yau. China's overseas purchases rose in October at the slowest pace in 15 months. Chinese president Hu Jintao on Nov. 17 said the government will seek to trim China's record trade surplus, an effort officials have previously said will involve encouraging imports.
U.S. consumer confidence held near a 15-month high in November, the University of Michigan said Nov. 22, as gains in employment and falling gasoline prices underpinned spending. Households have remained upbeat even as the economy grew at the slowest pace in three years in the third quarter.
Government Forecast
On Nov. 21, Hong Kong's government announced third-quarter economic growth that matched the highest estimate among 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, and raised its forecast for 2006 expansion to 6.5 percent from as much as 5 percent previously.
Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and other banks followed suit, saying stronger-than-expected exports and private investment, along will record stock prices, will keep the $178 billion economy humming.
Falling oil prices, a pause in U.S. interest rate increases and ``weakness'' in the U.S. dollar will support Hong Kong's exports, the government said.
Even so, Hong Kong is facing more competition from neighboring mainland ports such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou, which are expanding to handle a greater part of China's trade. China plans to add 2.1 billion tons of capacity to its sea ports by 2010, the Ministry of Communications said Nov. 9.
Bloomberg Survey
Container volume in Hong Kong, the world's second-busiest port after Singapore, rose 16.4 percent in the first 10 months from a year earlier, the Port Development Council said Nov. 16. Overall volume at Chinese ports jumped 23.2 percent in the same period.
A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S's Hong Kong logistics unit plans to fire about 200 workers after relocating some of its operations to China, the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported Nov. 18.
Imports probably grew 10.6 percent in October from a year earlier, the Bloomberg News survey showed.
The following table shows economists' forecasts for percentage changes in Hong Kong's exports and imports in October from a year earlier.
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Exports Imports
Firm YoY% YoY%
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Median 6.8% 10.6%
Average 6.9% 10.5%
High 9.8% 13.0%
Low 4.0% 8.8%
Number of Forecasts 14 14
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Action Economics 6.5% 11.0%
Bank of America 4.0% 11.5%
Bank of China (Hong Kong) 9.8% 10.9%
Bank of East Asia 6.5% 9.0%
Capital Economics 6.0% 11.0%
Citigroup 6.4% 10.0%
Core Pacific-Yamaichi 7.7% 10.1%
Deutsche Bank 8.0% 10.0%
Forecast Ltd. 7.0% 13.0%
Hang Seng Bank 8.9% 8.8%
HSBC 7.0% 10.5%
ING Groep NV 7.5% 11.0%
JPMorgan Chase 6.0% 10.7%
Morgan Stanley 5.6% 10.0%
