Lars Jensen, CEO at SeaIntel Maritime Analysis, told Lloyd¡¯s Loading List.com that nothing now remained of the 1 November GRI on the Asia-North Europe route.
"The rate has dropped to almost the same level as before the GRI." he said. "As for spot rates to the Mediterranean, these are down 27% compared with the level just prior to the GRI."
He added that the announcement by a majority of carriers of a mid-December Asia-Europe GRI was clearly having little or no effect on checking the decline in rates.
"Even though carriers have had a big push for December GRIs, the SCFI shows spot rates ex-China are under significant pressure," explained David Barnes, a Container Freight Derivatives broker at Clarkson Securities.
"The seasonal slowdown in cargo volumes appears to be outpacing any winter capacity cuts made on these mainline trades, and utilisation levels are suffering as a result. "
"In the face of weaker fundamentals, the November increase did not hold for long and there is no reason to believe that the December increase will be any different," he added.
However, SeaIntel's Jensen is less pessimistic, arguing that it is not a given that a December price hike will suffer the same fate as the previous one.
He said: "It could succeed if one of two criteria are fulfilled: either the carriers remove additional capacity from the market, or they regain the collective discipline on pricing they showed in March."
Declining spot rates are also affecting the transpacific trade, with the SCFI¡¯s ex-Asia tariffs to the US west and east coasts down by 6.1% and 3.1% respectively.
Member carriers of the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement (TSA) have announced a rate rise of US$400 per 40ft container for west coast destinations, effective 15 December. |
