More than a month after Somali pirates seized a Ukrainian cargo ship carrying 33 battle tanks and crates filled with guns and ammunition, a delicate dance is under way: Three U.S. warships encircle the Faina, and no one has any idea when the standoff will end.
The pirates, armed with AK-47s and rocket-propelled grenades, are staring down the globe's most powerful Navy, as they have done for the last few years with increasing success. This year has seen more than 60 such attacks, on a pace to make this year the worst ever for pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden, one of the world's busiest shipping routes.
"They've proven time and time again that they can do this and get away with it," said James Wilkes, managing director of London's Gray Page Limited, a maritime consulting group. "It's quite a straightforward MO that they've got. They know they can do this, they're hijacking the ships in daylight hours, and it's probably more sophisticated in organization than they've been given credit for before. There are hundreds and hundreds of people involved."
The capture of the Faina, which is now anchored near the Somali town of Hobyo - has focused the world's attention on pirates who have made the shipping route that runs past the Somali coast, across the Gulf of Aden and through the Suez Canal one of the world's most dangerous.
Most experts agree that the pirates would not have received nearly as much attention if the Faina had not been carrying weapons. Their initial ransom demand was $35 million.
"We saw a big ship, so we decided to capture it, and later we discovered that it was carrying tanks," the pirates' spokesman, Sugule Ali Omar, said by satellite phone from the deck of the hijacked ship. "That made us happy because we got a chance to demand more money."
Folk heroes to some
While the gunmen have practically been portrayed as folk heroes by some regional commentators who seem to delight in the curious notion of their being in-the-flesh pirates, their stranglehold on Somalia's waters is driving up the cost of international shipping and cutting off the flow of relief supplies to the millions of Somalis who rely on food aid to survive.
Sixteen years of war have made refugees of hundreds of thousands and forced 2.4 million Somalis to rely on U.N. World Food Program aid each month. On Oct. 6, 52 nongovernmental organizations said 3.2 million people -nearly half of Somalia's 7 million inhabitants - need emergency aid.
The hijackings may also be exposing secrets that the shipping world would rather remain in the shadows.
The Kenyan government said it bought the tanks for its army, while the U.S. Navy, the pirates and shipping experts said the tanks were bound for southern Sudan. If Kenya had been acting as a transit point for the hardware, it would have violated a U.N. arms embargo that covers Sudan.
Days after the hijacking of the Faina and its 20-man crew, police in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa arrested Andrew Mwangura, a well-connected and oft-quoted shipping expert who had been among the first to say the cargo was meant for Sudan. He was accused of making "alarming statements" to the press and possessing marijuana - the latter charge drew derisive laughter from the gallery when announced in court.
So far, shipping insurers say they have seen no decline in the number of vessels passing through the Suez Canal, and now offer "kidnap for ransom" policies to ships passing through the canal. The Bermuda-based Hiscox Insurance, for example, sells a $15,000 policy for transit through the Gulf of Aden, and its agents say business is booming.
De facto Coast Guard
The willingness to pay ransoms has only encouraged the Somali pirates, who readily acknowledge their thirst for hefty sums but also portray themselves as a de facto Coast Guard for their lawless nation. Somalia has had no central government since a clan-based rebel groups ousted dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991, and a transitional government backed by Ethiopia is currently fighting Islamic militants.
The pirates say they are intent on stopping the ruin of its waters by foreign ships that fish illegally and dump toxic waste off its coast.
"We don't know whether they are going to dump a toxin or collect marine resources, but we have to capture any ship that passes through our waters illegally," pirate spokesman Ali said. "In Somalia, there is no functioning central government that can manage our waters, so we have appointed ourselves to guard our coast against foreign ships."
Shortly after the hijacking of the Faina on Sept. 25, the United States, which patrols the region, surrounded the ship with three warships, desperate to keep the weapons from falling into the hands of al Qaeda linked Somali Islamic insurgents. Russia sent another ship, and France is pushing a measure through the U.N. Security Council to strengthen anti-piracy efforts.
Yet unless order is restored in Somalia, experts and Somali officials agree it will be impossible to restore order at sea. Since the Faina has been surrounded by the U.S. Navy, the only new development has been the pirates' decision to lower the ship's ransom to $20 million. But Tomex Team, the firm that operates the Faina, said recently it had only amassed $1 million.
Reasons not to attack
An attack, however, could jeopardize both cargo and crew.
"If you have a gun, you're going to be tempted to use it, and if you are tempted to use it then the other guy is going to be tempted to use his, which may result in somebody dying," said Cyrus Mody, a manager at the International Maritime Bureau. "Secondly, you really don't want to start a shooting competition on a chemical tanker or gas tanker. You don't want bullets or RPGs (rocket-propelled grenades) flying around."
Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in Somalia is worsening. Ninety percent of the U.N. World Food Program aid arrives by sea, and each ship must now travel with a military escort to fend off the buccaneers. Since 2005, the pirates have captured three U.N. ships.
"This being the worst year for piracy off Somalia, we could see the supply line cut completely," said World Food Program spokesman Peter Smerdon. "That would mean many people quickly going hungry."
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