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China Consumer Prices Rise Most in 20 Months on Food
POSTED: 10:57 a.m. EDT, December 11,2006
Inflation in China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, accelerated more than expected in November as food costs jumped.

Consumer prices rose 1.9 percent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today. That was the biggest gain in 20 months, adjusted for distortions caused by the Lunar New Year holiday, and topped all estimates among 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Excluding food, inflation held at 1 percent in November, damping expectations that the central bank will respond by raising interest rates. Inflation in China hasn't topped 2 percent since March 2005.

``There's nothing major to worry about,'' said Isaac Meng, senior economist at BNP Paribas Peregrine Ltd. in Beijing. ``I don't think the government or the central bank will do anything to tackle this inflation. It's mostly driven by food prices.''

Food costs, which account for a third of the consumer price index, jumped 3.7 percent after climbing 2.2 percent in October. Clothing prices gained 0.1 percent, the first increase since at least 1999. For the first 11 months, consumer prices rose 1.3 percent from the same period last year.

Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, who raised the benchmark lending rate twice this year, on Nov. 20 said pressure for further interest rate increases ``has eased a bit'' after economic growth slowed to a ``reasonable'' pace. China's economy expanded 10.4 percent in the third quarter after growing 11.3 percent in the previous three months.

Not a Problem

``Headline inflation is not much of a problem right now for the central bank,'' said Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse Group in Hong Kong. ``It is quite benign and mostly affected by agricultural products.''

The central bank last month forecast consumer inflation will ease to 1.5 percent for 2006 from 1.8 percent in 2005. Even so, it said inflation could quicken as China deregulates energy prices and boosts welfare spending. In addition, a possible rebound in investment could send raw material costs higher, the bank said.

``If they allow energy costs to be passed through to consumers, of that will show up in headline inflation,'' said Cindy Houser, senior economist at the Asian Development Bank in Hong Kong.

Producer-price inflation unexpectedly slowed in November as crude oil costs slipped, the statistics bureau said last week.

Currency Gains

China, which controls gains in the yuan, should allow faster currency appreciation to prevent export-driven money inflows from fanning inflation, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Nov. 28. China's trade surplus may swell by almost two-thirds to a record $168 billion this year, the customs bureau indicated Dec. 7.

``By allowing the currency to appreciate, China could help lower the import cost of food,'' Meng said.

Zhou raised interest rates in April and August and has ordered lenders to set aside more money as reserves three times this year. He also sold treasury bills to remove cash from the financial system.

On Dec. 7, Zhou and his colleagues said they plan to achieve a ``stable'' monetary policy and ``adequate'' money supply growth next year and seek to balance international payments. M2 money supply rose 16.8 percent in November, the Shanghai Securities News said today, citing Ma Kai, head of China's top planning agency.

From:Bloomberg
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